This report investigates how migration aspirations within the Russian population have evolved following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022. It primarily focuses on the impact of the war and how changes in political conditions, including support for the Russian government, have affected people’s willingness to leave the country. For this purpose, it draws on data from the Gallup World Poll (GWP), which surveyed over 30,000 individuals in Russia between 2008 and 2023 about their migration aspirations as well as their political sentiments and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics.
Some overall conclusions and recommendations
- The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused a significant decrease in the desire of Russians to Emigrate.
- Support for the political leadership in Russia increased following the full-scale invasion and there was an increase in respondents that viewed Russia as a good place to live.
- Those Russians who are more likely to aspire to migrate are typically young, male, highly educated and employed.
- There has been a change in the preferred destinations of Russians aspiring to emigrate, shifting from Western countries towards non-Western countries like China and Türkiye.
About the author
- Mikael Elinder, Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Uppsala University, and Director of Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies (UCFS).
- Oscar Erixson, Associate Professor of Economics, Institute for Housing and Urban Research, Uppsala University, and affiliated with Urban Lab and UCFS.
- Olle Hammar, Assistant Professor at the Department of Economics and Statistics, Linnaeus University, and Institute for Futures Studies.
Photographer https://unsplash.com/@wolfalexs
This report was published on December 12th, 2024.
